Luigi Marinus

The global economy is poised to remain steady for the remainder of 2025, echoed by the IMF’s recent upgrades to its growth forecasts. This is largely a function of the less dire tariff outlook. The SA economy remains lukewarm, however recent data suggests a modest uptick is on the cards, compared to lackluster growth in the first half of the year.

In financial markets, attention is currently focused on central bank policies, particularly those of the Federal Reserve. The Fed's projections suggest the likelihood of further rate cuts before the end of the year. Lower rates are the Fed’s response to apparent softness in the US labour market. The South African Reserve Bank on the other hand paused at the most recent MPC meeting but should cut in November.

Going forward, inflation concerns are likely to persist, both locally and aboard, partly due to the potential impact of tariffs. This creates a complex environment for central banks as they balance the need to support growth with maintaining price stability.

The current global macro outlook warrants cautious optimism, but we expect to continue paying close attention to economic data releases and central bank communications for further guidance on the economic trajectory.

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